June 13 2007, 16:36

Who will take the place of Polish apple suppliers on Russian and Ukrainian markets in a new season?

In connection with the expected significant decrease of apple production in Poland the produce business experts think about the possible impact on the EU apple market. The thing is, Poland was the largest apple grower in Europe producing around 2-2.5 mln. tons of these fruits per year.

According to evaluations of the analysts of ""Agrooglyad: Vegetables and Fruits" journal", apple production may decrease 35-40%, down to 1.3-1.5 mln. tons in 2007 in Poland. If we take into account the forecasted decrease of the volumes of apples processed into apple juice, puree and apple concentrate, and also the growth of apple import, Polish producers will probably be able to export some shipments of apples. Nevertheless, the prices for Polish apples are likely to be much higher than usually, because Poland supplied considerable volumes of this product to the markets of the European Union, Russia and Ukraine in the previous years. Polish apples allocated 95% share in the structure of apple import to Ukraine.

Most probably, Polish apples will be replaced with the expensive products from Italy, Greece, Spain and Netherlands on Ukrainian markets. We can expect the most significant growth of apple supplies from China to Russia and Ukraine. The significant increase of export apple shipments in the lower price segment is expected to take place on Ukrainian and Russian markets due to the produce supplied from Moldova, Georgia, Serbia and Macedonia. In March-June 2008 significantly larger volumes of apples may come from the countries of the Southern hemisphere: Chili, Brazil, Argentina. Russian importers may also increase the purchase of the apples of USA origin.

At the same time, the forecast of the significant growth of apple production in Ukraine in 2007 may be reconsidered downwards because of droughty and hot weather in many production regions; also, the losses caused by May frosts seem to be underestimated. So, to the opinion of market players, Ukrainian producers of quality apples can count on relatively high prices in a new season despite of the growth of inner production.