June 27 2007, 08:40

Poland may become apple net importer in 2007

When orchards finished to bloom and to form fruit sets, many Polish experts tried to estimate the actual losses caused by May frosts. ""Agrooglyad: Vegetables and Fruits" weekly" has been attentively tracking the changes in fruit production forecasts in Poland, because the situation on this country market directly influences the prices for produce in Ukraine, Russia, Belarus, Moldova and other CIS countries.

The forecast of apple production in Poland is of the greatest interest, because exactly apples represent the lion's share of trade between Poland and other CIS countries. To the opinion of Professor Eberhard Makosz, well-known Polish expert, apple production in Poland will amount to 1.0 up to 1,2 mln. tons, i.e. the harvest will be twice as low than in 2006 when around 2.3 mln. tons of apples were harvested.

To the Professor's opinion, Idared apple varieties have suffered the most severely. The minimal losses are expected for the apples of Eliza, Golden Delicious and Gala varieties. The orchardists' losses significantly depend on the production region. Frosts caused the greatest losses to the orchardists located in Grojec and Warka regions, where up to 70% of apple harvest have been lost.

At the same time, the experts of "Agrooglyad: Vegetables and Fruits" managed to speak to the representatives of the wholesale trade companies: the wholesale trade players are skeptical about such estimations. They think the purpose of such statements is to support the price growth for apples. To their opinion, apple harvest losses in Poland won't exceed 35-40%.

However, even if apple production reaches about 1.4-1.5 mln. tons in Poland, it will mark the shortfall of around 800-900 thousands of tons of apples comparing to the previous season. If the most pessimistic forecasts come true, the supply will decline down to 1.1-1.3 mln. tons. If we take into account Polish annual export of around 400-500,000 tons of apples, we can expect Poland to perform the insignificant apple export this season. Moreover, it is quite possible that Poland will have to import large volumes of apples from Western European countries where a rather good harvest is expected.