August 7 2003, 09:10 Interfax-Ukraine

Ukraine will not fall into hard losses due to low grain crop in 2003 - Financial Times expert

Ukraine has lost not too much because of poor grain crop in this season, for it sold plenty of grain last year at high prices and can this year buy at prices lower than the year before, the grain markets expert of British newspaper Financial Times Kevin Morrison believes.

"Fortunately, there will be enough wheat on the world's markets this year, and it will be sold at quite reasonable prices, much lower than last year's", Morrison said in an interview to BBC Ukrainian service, which was reported by Interfax-Ukraine news agency.

Thus, he thinks, quite a large amount of grain can be brought to Europe at moderate prices, and the majority of European countries will be importing it.

"The time when Ukraine emerged in the grain market last year was quite beneficial for it. There were serious crop failures in North America and Australia, which are traditionally large producers of grain. And it was because of poor crops in these countries, and also thanks to the fact that in Ukraine itself the last year's crop had been extremely good, that Ukraine was able to enter this market and to cover with its grain a part of the world's demand", the expert said.

Now, he thinks, everything has turned against Ukraine. Traditional players are returning to the market, such as North America, which was as though making up for last year's losses. New powerful producers, such as China, are emerging. On the whole, the balance on the world grain markers this year will be quite satisfactory, Morrison thinks. Therefore, he is sure that if Ukraine had had this year the same good crop again, it would have been much more difficult for it to enter world markets this year.

"However, it looks as if the situation, which in other European countries, despite extreme weather conditions, caused no panic among ordinary citizens, in Ukraine has entailed not only rush demand for foodstuffs, but also considerable political and administrative replacements", the expert said.