Information for fruit and vegetables business in CIS
The forecast on potato yield in 2005 is decreased, the prices are growing
The Agricultural Marketing Project (AMP) decided to decrease 3% the prognosed level of potato production in Ukraine, released in May 2005. To the opinion of the analysts, this fact will not be followed by the considerable price decrease, cause the mass harvesting is in progress in the major production regions. At the present moment, according to the evaluations carried out by AMP analysts, potato production went down 19-20% in Ukraine comparing to 2004; the yield will be the lowest comparing to the recent three years.
Despite of the fact that the previous forecast was considered as rather pessimistic, new information from the western and northern regions of Ukraine made the analysts review and reduce the prognosed data. The prognosis for Polissya zone was decreased 16%; while the Steppe zone is forecasted to produce 17% more than a year ago. However, the share of Steppe zone is only 20-23% of the total potato production in Ukraine, so the general forecast on potato production was reduced significantly.
The main reasons for prognosis reduction were the unfavorable weather conditions in the western and northern regions - the main potato producers. The yield of this commodity decreased; moreover, the plants were affected by diseases. At the same time, the producers from the South and East of Ukraine consider this year to be the most favorable for potato growing during the recent decade. Besides, the intensive technologies of potato production are more and more widely applied in the South of Ukraine; they reduce the risk of low yield considerably and increase the average yield of this crop. So, this year the regions, which purchase potato traditionally, will be better provided with the locally produced commodities.
At the present moment the wholesale price on potato in Ukraine exceeds twice the past year data. This year it is sold USD 0.16-0.2/kg; past year the farmers could get USD 0.08-0.12/kg for potato. According to the assessments done by the Agricultural Marketing Project, the price on potato may be kept on the relatively high level during the whole season, but the deficit on this commodity can hardly be expected, cause the consumption of potato is lowering from year to year. Besides, high prices on this commodity observed this season may result in the further production growth of early potato.