December 27 2006, 09:10

New record of produce consumption will be achieved during the holidays - expert's opinion

Traditionally, during the pre-holiday period the population dramatically increases the purchase volumes of food stuff. The largest food sales are recorded before the New Year in Ukraine. The entrepreneurs often find it difficult to forecast the sales volumes in this period of time. During the previous years the vendors used to underestimate the sales volumes. They failed to fully provide the growing demand; this situation resulted in agiotage and dramatic price jump on market.

The Agricultural Marketing Project professionally analyzes the produce market. The project has carried out the tentative expert estimation of the produce consumption dynamics during the coming holiday time. Here are the most interesting trends:

- The consumption of fresh produce will reach the top record comparing to the previous years.

- The consumption of citrus fruits will significantly grow (tangerine and orange + 25-35%, lemons + 5-7%)

- Banana consumption will grow again 6-8%

- The apple consumption growth will be observed (however, it will be less significant comparing to citrus fruits consumption)

- More greenhouse cucumbers and tomatoes (approximately +20% ) will be consumed.

To the opinion of Andriy Yarmak, the Deputy Director of the Agricultural Marketing Project, the growth of fresh produce consumption is a consequence of the higher incomes of the population. Now people can afford buying more fresh fruits and vegetables not only summertime. At the same time, the results of the consumers' opinion survey, conducted by the Project, prove that 65% of Ukrainian consumers in large cities of the country still consider fruit and vegetable prices to be too high in winter period. It is the main consumption-restraining factor. The other restraining factor is that fresh fruits and vegetables are supplied from other countries to Ukraine in winter period, so that the consumers doubt the products' quality and safety.

To the opinion of Andriy Yarmak, befiore the New Year 2007, in addition to fruits and vegetables Ukrainians will buy more meat. The consumption of this product also directly depends on population incomes. The expert thinks that this fact favors meat production increase and price decrease.

Of course, the growth of some products consumption normally occurs at the expense of the decreased consumption of other products. These processes are less obvious in Ukraine now as the consumption of major food products is on the relatively low level. To Andriy Yarmak's opinion, the consumption of potato, cereals and other grain products will somewhat decline these holidays.